The Great Decoupling: How AI Overviews Are Reshaping Google Search in 2026
Google AI Overviews now appear on 15-25% of searches, CTR has dropped 68%, and yet conversion rates are climbing. Here is what the data actually says, and what smart advertisers are doing about it.
Something fundamental has changed in Google Search. Not a tweak. Not an update. A structural shift in how search works, who gets traffic, and what "winning" even means.
Google calls it AI Overviews. Marketers are calling it the biggest disruption since mobile-first indexing. We have spent weeks analyzing three independent research reports, cross-referencing data from Seer Interactive, Semrush, WordStream, Tinuiti, and others. The findings paint a clear picture: the old rules of search marketing no longer apply.
Here is what the data actually tells us.
Drop in paid CTR on AI Overview queries (Seer Interactive)
Of Google searches end without a click (SparkToro)
Of industries saw CVR increase despite CTR drops (WordStream)
Average CPC across all industries, up 12.9% (WordStream)
What Are AI Overviews, and Why Should You Care?
AI Overviews are Google's AI-generated summaries that appear at the top of search results. Instead of showing you ten blue links, Google now reads the web for you and presents a synthesized answer directly in the search results page.
As of early 2026, AI Overviews serve over 2 billion monthly users across 200+ countries and 40+ languages, according to Google Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler on Google's official blog. On desktop, they consume 42% of initial screen space. On mobile, that number climbs to 48%. According to WordStream's analysis, the first organic result now sits at 1,686 pixels down the page, which is below most screen sizes.
In plain terms: for nearly half of all screen real estate, Google is no longer showing your content. It is showing its own.
Google has gone from being a conduit (directing users to websites) to being a destination (answering queries itself). The era of "ranking to get clicks" is being replaced by "getting cited to build trust."
The CTR Collapse: What the Numbers Actually Show
The headline numbers are dramatic. Based on Seer Interactive's analysis of 26.2 million impressions (25.1M organic, 1.1M paid) across 42 organizations and 3,119 informational search terms, here is what happened between June 2024 and September 2025:
- Paid CTR: dropped from 19.7% to 6.34% -68%
- Organic CTR: dropped 61%
- Brand NOT cited in AIO: paid CTR drops to 4.14%
- Paid CTR: dropped from 19.10% to 13.04% -32%
- Organic CTR: relatively stable
- Brand cited in AIO: paid CTR at 7.89% 91% higher
But context matters. One important nuance from the data: Seer Interactive notes that queries triggering AI Overviews "have consistently shown lower CTRs" historically. Some of the decline may reflect correlation rather than pure causation. The queries Google chooses to answer with AI tend to be the ones users were already less likely to click on.
Still, the scale of the drop is undeniable. And it is accelerating.
The SERP Is Being Cannibalized
AI Overviews do not just push organic results down the page. They actively replace other SERP features that previously drove traffic. According to WordStream's AI Overview statistics report:
Sitelinks, which used to be a reliable brand-building feature, have nearly vanished on queries with AI Overviews. Video results are down 84%. The traditional SERP that marketers spent years optimizing for is being systematically replaced.
AI Overviews Are No Longer Just Informational
When AI Overviews first launched, there was a comforting assumption: they would only affect informational queries. "What is" and "how to" searches. Stuff that did not matter commercially anyway.
That assumption has been demolished.
Between January and October 2025, Semrush's AI Overviews study (tracking 10 million+ keywords) shows how AI Overview triggers shifted by query intent:
Informational queries (dropped from 91% to 57%)
Commercial queries (rose from 8% to 19%)
Transactional queries (surged from 2% to 14%)
Navigational queries (exploded from 0.7% to 10%)
Read that last number again. Navigational queries, searches where users are looking for a specific brand, now trigger AI Overviews 1,296% more often than they did at the start of 2025. This means that even when someone searches for your brand name, Google may answer for you before the user ever sees your website.
According to Tinuiti's Digital Ads Benchmark Report (tracking over $4 billion in managed ad spend), brand CPC has spiked 19% year-over-year, compared to just 3% for non-brand terms. Companies are now paying significantly more to defend their own brand name in search, because AI Overviews are answering branded queries before the user scrolls to your listing.
The Conversion Paradox: Fewer Clicks, Better Results
Here is where the story gets interesting. Despite falling CTRs, something counterintuitive is happening: conversions are actually improving for smart advertisers.
We call this the Conversion Paradox. The data across multiple sources confirms it:
- 65% of industries saw conversion rate increases despite CTR declines (WordStream, 2025 Google Ads Benchmarks, 16,446 US campaigns)
- All-industry average conversion rate reached 7.52% in 2025 (WordStream)
- AI-optimized ads show 127% higher conversion rates and 43% shorter sales cycles (Groas.ai analysis)
- Combined Performance Max + Search campaigns achieved 5.9% CVR, the best result of any format (Groas.ai, 247 accounts)
AI Overviews act as a "high-pass filter." They satisfy casual, low-intent searchers directly in the SERP. The people who still click through are the ones who actually intend to buy. You get fewer visits, but each visit is worth more.
This is why looking at CTR in isolation tells a misleading story. The real question is not "how many clicks did I get?" but "how much revenue did each click generate?"
The Math That Matters
- 1,000 clicks at 19.7% CTR
- 3.9% conversion rate
- 39 conversions per campaign
- Lots of "window shoppers"
- 500 clicks at 6.34% CTR
- 7.52% conversion rate
- 38 conversions per campaign
- Higher-intent traffic only
The output is nearly identical, but the cost structure changes. Which brings us to the uncomfortable topic of CPC inflation.
How Different Industries Are Affected
The impact of AI Overviews is wildly uneven across industries. Some are thriving. Others are being fundamentally disrupted. Click on each industry below to see the specific data.
Healthcare - Most Severely Impacted
Healthcare is the hardest-hit vertical by a significant margin.
Of ads appear below AIO (Adthena)
Drop in CTR year-over-year
Conversion rate (WordStream)
Average CPC (WordStream)
According to Adthena's analysis of 21 million+ SERPs, healthcare has the worst ad positioning of any vertical, with 64.6% of ads appearing below the AI Overview. Major hospital systems have reported 10%+ month-over-month organic traffic declines. Over 80% of informational health queries are expected to have AI answers. The silver lining: hybrid AI + human campaigns have shown 20-40% lower cost-per-appointment (Intrepy Healthcare Marketing), and conversion rates remain the highest of any industry at 11.62% (WordStream).
Strategy: Focus on appointment-booking keywords rather than informational health content. Invest in local SEO and patient review signals. Use AI-enhanced campaigns for lower cost-per-acquisition.
eCommerce & Retail - Best Positioned
Retail is among the least affected industries, though not immune.
Of searches trigger AI Overviews
Of ads above AIO (Adthena)
Average CTR (WordStream)
Average CPC (WordStream)
Fewer than 4% of eCommerce searches trigger AI Overviews, down from 29% at initial rollout. Google appears to have deliberately pulled back on commercial product queries. Shopping ads remain dominant: 76.4% of retail search ad spend and 85.3% of all Google Ads clicks according to Bind Media. Ad position data from Adthena shows 75.8% of ads appearing above the AIO. Benchmarks from WordStream: CTR at 8.92% (+14% YoY), CPC at $3.49 (+33.7% YoY).
Strategy: Double down on Shopping campaigns and Merchant Center optimization. Use lifestyle imagery. Enable Performance Max for broader reach. Monitor CPC inflation closely, as it is the primary threat for this vertical.
B2B & SaaS - Highest AI Overview Growth
B2B technology has seen the steepest increase in AI Overview triggers of any sector.
Of B2B tech queries trigger AIOs (BrightEdge)
Average CTR (WordStream)
Average CPC (WordStream)
Average cost per lead (WordStream)
According to BrightEdge, 70% of B2B tech queries now trigger AI Overviews, up from 36%. Organic search drives 76% of trackable B2B website traffic, making this vertical highly vulnerable. HubSpot's organic traffic reportedly dropped from 13.5 million to under 7 million monthly visits between November and December 2024 (estimated via third-party traffic tools). WordStream benchmarks show Business Services CTR at 5.65%, CPC at $5.58, and CPL at $103.54.
Strategy: Shift from top-of-funnel blog content to product-led comparison and evaluation content. Build authority signals that make your brand citable. Invest in thought leadership that AI systems reference.
Travel & Hospitality - Massive AIO Growth, Strong Ad Position
Travel has seen explosive AI Overview growth but maintains strong ad positioning.
AIO growth after March 2025 core update
Of ads above AIO (Adthena)
Average CTR (WordStream)
Average CPC (WordStream)
Despite 381% AI Overview growth following the March 2025 core update, travel maintains the best ad positioning of any sector at 78.4% above AIO (Adthena). CPCs remain the 3rd lowest at $2.12 (WordStream). Interestingly, 11% of travel users are AI non-users, the highest of any sector.
Strategy: Leverage visual content and rich snippets. Focus on destination-specific, long-tail queries. Build direct booking funnels. Optimize for the "dreaming" phase of travel where AI cannot yet replace human experience.
Finance & Insurance - Fastest Growing AIO Presence
Financial services is seeing the fastest absolute growth in AI Overview triggers.
Fastest AIO growth (Adthena)
Average CTR (WordStream)
CVR, lowest of all industries (WordStream)
Average cost per lead (WordStream)
According to Adthena, finance has the fastest AIO growth at +9.9%. Insurance queries with AI Overviews grew from 17% to 63%. Bank of America has achieved 32.2% visibility across AI platforms for banking queries, showing that established brands with strong authority signals dominate AI citations. WordStream benchmarks: CTR 8.33%, CPC $3.46, CVR 2.55% (lowest of all industries), CPL $83.93.
Strategy: Build E-E-A-T signals aggressively. Ensure your brand appears in third-party comparison content. Focus on product-specific landing pages that convert the traffic you do get.
Education - Devastating Traffic Loss
Education is the cautionary tale of what happens when AI answers your core value proposition.
Chegg non-subscriber traffic (Chegg earnings)
Chegg revenue drop (Chegg earnings)
CVR increase (WordStream)
CPC increase for higher ed (WordStream)
Chegg is the most dramatic case study. According to Chegg's public earnings reports (January 2024 to January 2025): a 49% decline in non-subscriber traffic, 24% revenue drop, and 21% subscriber decline. When your core offering is answering questions, and AI Overviews now answer questions for free, the business model breaks. WordStream data shows education CVR spiked +43.87% (the highest increase of any industry) while CPC rose +41.91%.
Strategy: Differentiate on outcomes, not information. Offer certifications, mentorship, and community that AI cannot replicate. Shift from content-as-product to content-as-marketing.
Local Services - High AIO Triggers, Location Matters
Local services face high AI Overview trigger rates, but geography is a natural defense.
AIO trigger rate, cleaning services (Local Falcon)
AIO trigger rate, legal services (Local Falcon)
AIO rate with location terms (Local Falcon)
Drop in site visits (AdExpert)
According to Local Falcon's research, including location terms in queries reduces AIO trigger rates significantly, from 46% without location terms to 35% with them. This means local SEO signals, Google Business Profile optimization, and location-specific content remain powerful defensive strategies. AdExpert reports a 40% drop in site visits for local businesses affected by AI Overviews.
Strategy: Optimize Google Business Profile aggressively. Target location-specific keywords. Build review volume and quality. Create neighborhood and community content that AI summaries reference.
The Death of Exact Match: How Campaign Structure Must Change
One of the most consequential shifts is how different keyword match types perform in AI Overview placements. According to Groas.ai's research:
Exact Match, the cornerstone of precise PPC management for over a decade, now captures only 8% of impressions in AI Overview placements. Broad Match captures 52%. Performance Max leads at 67%.
This is not a recommendation to switch match types. It is a description of reality. Google's AI-powered campaigns are built to surface in AI Overviews. Manual keyword control is not.
According to Google's own testing data, AI Max for Search campaigns deliver 14% more conversions at similar CPA and ROAS. They auto-qualify for placement above, below, and within AI Overviews. Minimum budget is $50/day, with Google recommending $750/day (15x target CPA) for optimal learning. Note: this is Google's self-reported data and has not been independently verified.
Performance Max vs. Search: The Real Comparison
Based on Groas.ai's analysis of 247 accounts:
| Metric | Search Campaigns | Performance Max | Combined (PMax + Search) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conversion Rate | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% |
| ROAS | 5.17:1 | 2.57:1 | Best overall |
| AIO Impression Share | 8-52% | 67% | Broadest reach |
| Outperforms in tests | 42% of the time | 58% of the time | - |
The takeaway: running both formats together produces the best conversion rate (5.9%), while Search alone still delivers higher ROAS (5.17:1). They complement each other rather than competing.
The Single Most Important Finding: Get Cited or Get Left Behind
If you take one thing from this entire analysis, let it be this:
According to Seer Interactive, brands cited within the AI Overview text see 91% higher paid CTR and 35% higher organic CTR compared to non-cited brands. This is the single strongest lever available to any advertiser in 2026.
This finding collapses the traditional wall between SEO and PPC. You cannot buy your way out of organic irrelevance. If your brand is not cited in the AI Overview, your ads perform dramatically worse, even if you are bidding on the same keywords.
How to Get Cited in AI Overviews
Based on the data, here is what increases your chances of being cited:
- FAQ schema markup increases inclusion rate by 28% (reported by ALM Corp and Sky SEO Digital, based on analysis of Google's "FastSearch" technology)
- Content with 3+ external citations per 1,000 words is 41% more likely to appear in AI Overviews (same sources)
- Short, declarative sentences of 2-4 per paragraph help Google's content extraction systems parse your content
- Question-formatted headers that match how users search
- Structured lists and tables that are easy for machines to parse
SEO and PPC can no longer operate as separate disciplines. Citation in AI Overviews is an organic achievement that directly boosts paid performance by 91% (Seer Interactive). The most effective organizations in 2026 are running unified "search presence" teams where organic citation strategy informs paid keyword strategy and vice versa.
CPC Inflation: The Squeeze Is Real
While conversion rates improve, the cost of acquiring those clicks is climbing steadily:
- 87% of industries saw CPC increases in 2025 (WordStream, 16,446 campaigns)
- Average CPC reached $5.26, up 12.9% year-over-year (WordStream)
- Brand CPCs specifically spiked 19% as companies defend their own terms (Tinuiti)
- Ad spend grew 10% year-over-year but clicks grew only 1-5% (Tinuiti, Q4 2024)
- One in four paid ads that would have appeared in the top position are now pushed below the fold (Adthena, 21M SERPs)
The gap between spend growth and click growth represents the fundamental economic squeeze. You are paying more to get fewer but better clicks.
For many brands, total budget needs to increase just to maintain the same volume of conversions. This is the hidden cost of AI Overviews that does not show up in any single metric.
Why Last-Click Attribution Is Now Officially Broken
With SparkToro reporting 63.5% of searches ending without a click, last-click attribution is measuring less than half the picture. Consider this:
- Users are 26% more likely to abandon browsing after seeing an AI Overview page (Pew Research Center, study tracking 68,000 real searches from 900 US adults)
- Question-based searches generate AI Overviews 60% of the time (Pew Research Center, same study)
- AI Overview queries show an 83% zero-click rate compared to 60% for traditional search (BrightEdge)
- Google earns 32% higher ad revenue from zero-click Shopping queries than traditional search (SparkToro)
The question for every marketing team is no longer "did this ad drive a click?" but "did this campaign cause revenue that would not have happened otherwise?"
This requires a shift toward incrementality testing and Media Mix Modeling. Google's Meridian is one option. The key principle is measuring the lift your marketing creates, not just the clicks it captures.
The Future: Agentic Commerce and the Disappearance of the Website
Looking beyond 2026, the trajectory points toward something even more radical. Google is piloting "Direct Offers" (with brands like Petco and Samsonite) where transactions happen entirely within the AI interface. No website visit required.
Google's Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) aims to standardize how AI agents negotiate with business systems. And 25% of Gen Z already start their research journey with an AI assistant rather than a search engine, according to Merkle's "The Death of the Traditional Website" report.
The website, as we know it, may increasingly become a backend fulfillment system rather than a frontend storefront. Brand trust becomes the ultimate currency because users will scan AI summaries for familiar names before converting.
In a world where AI mediates every purchase decision, brand building becomes more important, not less. When a user reads an AI-generated comparison and sees your brand mentioned alongside competitors, the trust you have built determines whether they choose you. Top-of-funnel brand investment, long dismissed as "unmeasurable," may be the most strategic lever of all.
What You Should Do Right Now
Based on the convergence of evidence across all three research reports, here are the actions with the strongest data support:
1. Unify SEO and PPC. Create a single "search presence" team. Citation in AI Overviews boosts paid CTR by 91% (Seer Interactive). These functions must share data, strategy, and goals.
2. Enable Performance Max if you have not already. It auto-qualifies for AIO placements and captures 67% impression share vs. 8% for Exact Match (Groas.ai).
3. Add FAQ schema to your key landing pages. It increases AIO inclusion by 28% (ALM Corp).
4. Shift budget from informational to transactional keywords. "Best of" and "compare" queries convert. "What is" and "how to" queries are being answered by Google for free (Semrush).
5. Restructure content for machine readability. Short paragraphs (2-4 sentences), question-formatted headers, structured lists, 3+ external citations per 1,000 words.
6. Adopt Revenue Per Click as your north star metric instead of CTR or raw traffic. Plan for high-funnel CTRs to be 20-30% lower than today.
7. Test AI Max for Search with proper guardrails (brand exclusions, URL controls, offline conversion data).
8. Build incrementality measurement. Last-click attribution is measuring less than half the picture. Move toward Media Mix Modeling or incrementality testing.
The Bottom Line
AI Overviews have not killed search marketing. They have changed what success looks like. The brands that thrive will be the ones that stop measuring traffic and start measuring influence, the ones that earn citations rather than just rankings, and the ones that treat every click as a premium event worth optimizing for conversion rather than volume.
The data is clear. The old game of impressions and clicks is over. The new game is about trust, citation, and conversion quality. Adapt to it, or watch your competitors figure it out first.
Sources & Methodology
This analysis synthesizes data from multiple independent research reports. Below are the primary sources cited throughout this article, with study details where available.
Primary Research Sources
| Source | Study Details | Key Data Used |
|---|---|---|
| Seer Interactive | 26.2M impressions (25.1M organic, 1.1M paid), 42 organizations, 3,119 search terms. June 2024 - Sept 2025. | CTR decline (68%), citation advantage (91%/35%), organic CTR drop (61%) |
| Semrush | AI Overviews Study, 10M+ keywords tracked. Jan - Oct 2025. | Intent migration data, AIO prevalence rates, query type shifts |
| WordStream | 2025 Google Ads Benchmarks, 16,446 US campaigns. | Industry CTR/CPC/CVR/CPL benchmarks, $5.26 average CPC, 87% CPC increase rate |
| Tinuiti | Digital Ads Benchmark Report, $4B+ managed ad spend. | Brand CPC (+19%), spend vs. click growth gap, quarterly trends |
| Adthena | 21M+ SERPs analyzed across seven major industries. | Ad position data by industry (above/below AIO), healthcare 64.6% below |
| Groas.ai | 247 accounts analyzed for PMax vs. Search performance. | Match type impression share (PMax 67%, Broad 52%, Exact 8%), CVR comparisons, AI-optimized ad multipliers |
| Pew Research Center | 68,000 real searches from 900 US adults. | Browsing abandonment (+26%), question-based AIO rate (60%), click rate with/without AIO |
| Merkle | "The Death of the Traditional Website" research report, 2025. | 25% of Gen Z start research with AI assistants |
| Google (Official) | Earnings calls (Q4 2024, Q2-Q3 2025) and official blog. | 2B monthly users, 200+ countries, 40+ languages, AI Max performance claims |
Additional Sources
- WordStream - AI Overviews screen space analysis (42% desktop, 48% mobile, 1,686px first organic result)
- WordStream - SERP feature cannibalization statistics (sitelinks -96%, videos -84%, etc.)
- SparkToro (with Datos data partnership) - Zero-click search rate (63.5%)
- BrightEdge - B2B tech AIO trigger rates (70%), zero-click comparison (83% vs 60%)
- Local Falcon - Local services AIO trigger rates by category and location terms
- Bind Media - Shopping ads share of retail spend (76.4%) and clicks (85.3%)
- Chegg - Public earnings reports (Jan 2024 - Jan 2025), traffic and revenue impact
- AdExpert - Local business site visit decline (-40%)
- Intrepy Healthcare Marketing - Hybrid AI + human campaign cost reduction (20-40%)
- ALM Corp / Sky SEO Digital - FAQ schema (+28%) and citation density (+41%) impact on AIO inclusion
Where possible, we have linked directly to primary sources. Some data points (particularly industry-specific AIO trigger rates and traffic estimates for private companies like HubSpot) rely on third-party estimation tools and should be treated as directional rather than exact. Google's self-reported performance data for AI Max has not been independently verified. We have noted these caveats inline where relevant.
Ready to optimize your product portfolio?
Get expert insights and strategies to scale your e-commerce business.